Water NeosTier 2
at Plenty of Games Regionals
decks
2
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-6-0
overall winrate
14.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
16.2%
avg ELO -17.0 per match
expected value
40.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
35.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1395
· median 1395
· range 1337–1452
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1225
Q3 1378
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -20.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Allies | 13.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
