Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Plenty of Games Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.8% | +6.4 |
| Water Allies | 13.8% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 24.4% | -11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -9.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.3% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| False Step | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 |