← Plenty of Games Regionals

Fire Umbra RangerTier 2

at Plenty of Games Regionals

decks
8 (13.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41 17-24-0
overall winrate
41.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6% avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
45.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268 · median 1259 · range 1120–1464 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033 Q1 1225 Q3 1378 1702
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Luxem Assassin 13.8% 7 5-2-0 71.4% 63.6% 62.8% +6.4
Water Allies 13.8% 9 1-8-0 11.1% 23.1% 24.4% -11.8
Wind Allies 12.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.4% +1.8
Fire Aggro 10.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.4
Wind Crux Lorraine 10.3% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 33.1% -9.7
Fire Erupting 8.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.3% -14.1
Fire Crux Mage 6.9% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 61.3% +7.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.5% -15.9
Water Dawn of Ashes 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.4% +23.1
Water Neos 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.4% +23.1
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.7% +14.1
Water Neos Tonoris 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.4% -13.8
Water Umbra Ranger 1.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.1% -13.4
Wind Beast 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.7
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +0.33 1 0 2
Increasing Danger +0.33 1 0 2
Exorcise Curses +0.33 1 0 2
Focused Flames +0.33 1 0 2
Umbral Tithe +0.33 1 0 2
Serum of Wisdom +0.33 1 0 2
Meltdown +0.33 1 0 2
Smoke Bombs +0.33 1 0 2
Gloamspire, Black Market +0.33 1 0 2
Seeking Shot +0.33 1 0 2
False Step +0.33 1 0 2
Relentless Hexchaser +0.33 1 0 2
Spirit of Serene Fire +0.33 1 0 2
Mindbreak Bullet +0.33 1 0 2
Carter, Synthetic Reaper +0.33 1 0 2
Automaton Bomber -0.33 0 1 0
Airship Engineer -0.33 0 1 0
Fast Cure -0.33 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -0.33 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -0.33 0 1 0
Backstep -0.33 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Spirit of Fire -0.33 0 1 0
Fiery Duelist -0.33 0 1 0
Incendiary Shot -0.33 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.33 0 1 0
Diana, Cursebreaker -0.33 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -0.33 0 1 0
Tempered Steel -0.33 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/1855/archetypes/Fire Umbra Ranger