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Wind Crux LorraineTier 1

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decks
6 (10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 15-10-3
overall winrate
58.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7% avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
54.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1261 · median 1267 · range 1033–1438 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033 Q1 1225 Q3 1378 1702
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Luxem Assassin 13.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 58.4% +8.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 13.8% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 66.9% +9.7
Water Allies 13.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.8% -4.6
Wind Allies 12.1% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 59.1% +5.8
Fire Aggro 10.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 57.0% +5.2
Fire Erupting 8.6% 6 2-2-2 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.1
Fire Crux Mage 6.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.6% -14.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.6
Water Dawn of Ashes 3.4% 0
Water Neos 3.4% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.7% 0
Water Neos Tonoris 1.7% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.7
Wind Beast 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.1
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Banner Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Cry for Help +1.00 1 0 0
Crux Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/1855/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine