Fire ArcaneTier 2
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
3
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
9-10-0
overall winrate
47.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1363
· median 1471
· range 1095–1523
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
