Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.9 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.6% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +24.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Felicitous Flock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lumen Borealis | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Illuminating Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Journey's Beginning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |