← 250315 紙牌屋 Regional

Wind SeiryuuTier 2

at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional

decks
6 (4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
37 15-19-3
overall winrate
44.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6% avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
47.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348 · median 1299 · range 1205–1542 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1207 Q3 1409 1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 9.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.4
Fire Aggro 9.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.6% -0.9
Water Genbu 8.2% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.6% +0.3
Wind Shadowstrike 8.2% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 33.0% -9.8
Wind Allies 7.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 39.6% -7.7
Fire Suzaku 5.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.9% -3.1
Wind Astra Cleric 5.7% 0
Fire Crux Mage 4.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.0% +8.1
Water Penguin Mill 4.1% 0
Wind Byakko 4.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.1
Fire Slimes 3.3% 0
Fire Arcane 2.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.1% -14.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.6% -21.4
Wind Razorgale 2.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.3% -6.0
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 65.2% +24.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.6% -11.9
Fire Seiryuu 1.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.6% 0
Slimes 1.6% 0
Water Allies 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.9% +11.0
Water Tera Cleric 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.4% +8.6
Wind Beast 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.1
Fire Byakko 0.8% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.8% 0
Fire Exia 0.8% 0
Fire Luxem Guo Jia 0.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -3.1
Fire Polkhawk 0.8% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.8% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Water Tera Silvie 0.8% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 0.8% 0
Water Zander 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.8% -9.9
Wind Exia 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.5
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Wind -1.00 0 1 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Draught of Stamina +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Felicitous Flock -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle -1.00 0 1 0
Winbless Kiteshield +1.00 1 0 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Lumen Borealis -1.00 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy +1.00 1 0 0
Luxem Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Illuminating Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Bedivere, Woodland Overseer -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Serene Wind -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Fortuitous Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Baby Green Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Journey's Beginning +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Fatestone of Heaven -1.00 0 1 0
Art of War +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0
Seiryuu's Command +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/21320/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu