Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
7
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
18-24-1
overall winrate
43.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1225
· median 1135
· range 1079–1438
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
57% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 67.2% | +9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 23.5% | -15.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
