Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
5
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
15-18-3
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.7%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1311
· range 1176–1392
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.5% | -13.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.9% | +12.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.1 |
