Water FractalTier 1
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
12
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
77
37-32-8
overall winrate
53.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1329
· range 1130–1730
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 41.4% | -3.6 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 35.6% | -6.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 31.1% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 32.8% | -9.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 61.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +3.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble, Chill to the Bone. Losers more often ran: Extricating Touch, Cerulean Decree, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Chill to the Bone
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Extricating Touch
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Cerulean Decree
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rimesoul Bishop
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Frozen Dismissal
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extricating Touch | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |