Water GenbuTier 1
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.3% | +3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.5% | +10.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.5% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Primordial Ritual, Snow Fairy, Rippleback Terrapin.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Keeper of the Wild | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |