Water Wind VanitasTier 3
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1171
· median 1171
· range 1171–1171
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Wind Vanitas decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
