Wind AlliesTier 1
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
9
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57
27-25-5
overall winrate
51.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1362
· median 1369
· range 1190–1536
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +10.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.7% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.4% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.5% | +13.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -7.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 69.2% | +11.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Charged Mannequin. Losers more often ran: Vanishing Shot, Safeguard Amulet, Scatter Essence.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Charged Mannequin
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rallied Advance
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Vanishing Shot
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Portentous Tanggu
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 72 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 59 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Shot | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fleetfoot Filly | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cavalier Rescue | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rearing Rebound | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Whirlwind Threads | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Reverent Gale | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |