Water Penguin MillTier 1
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
decks
5
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
27-8-3
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.3%
avg ELO +7.2 per match
expected value
58.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1319
· range 1158–1441
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1207
Q3 1409
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.8% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 67.5% | +11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +17.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
