Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Quill | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |