Water AlliesTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.2% | -4.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |