Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
5
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
16-18-0
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1191
· range 1059–1418
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 32.4% | -10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.4% | -1.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +7.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.5% | +6.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
