Wind AlliesTier 1
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
12
(14.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
67
30-27-10
overall winrate
52.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1289
· range 1123–1453
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
42% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 67.6% | +10.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.2% | -7.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -8.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
| Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Rose, Eternal Paragon, Shimmercloak Assassin. Losers more often ran: Dilu, Auspicious Charger, Verdigris Decree, Oath of the Sakura.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windmill Engineer
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dilu, Auspicious Charger
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Verdigris Decree
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Oath of the Sakura
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Mortal Ambition
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fairy Whispers
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 74 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Displace | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Zephyr | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Razorgale Calling | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lancelot, Goliath of Aesa | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rearing Rebound | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fleetfoot Filly | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |