Water GenbuTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
5
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
14-17-4
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1325
· median 1318
· range 1133–1536
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.4% | -10.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
