Water FractalTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
6
(7.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
42
19-22-1
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1234
· median 1289
· range 957–1328
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 35.3% | -7.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.6% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.9% | +10.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
