Fire ExiaTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
2
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
3-9-1
overall winrate
26.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.5%
avg ELO -8.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1203
· range 1021–1385
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
