EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Michigan HVN Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 78.6% | 54.7% | 58.9% | 51.6% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Overlord | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 82.1% | 71.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | 1243 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 15 | 18.3% | 85 | 58.8% | 51.9% | 53.4% | 50.2% | 1333 | — |
| 4 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 50.0% | 56.7% | 52.9% | 53.5% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 9.8% | 52 | 54.8% | 51.1% | 52.8% | 51.4% | 1336 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 3.7% | 21 | 66.7% | 57.3% | 52.5% | 51.3% | 1341 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 7 | 8.5% | 44 | 54.5% | 59.3% | 50.7% | 54.4% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 10 | 12.2% | 61 | 51.6% | 52.6% | 50.6% | 51.4% | 1278 | — |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 55.9% | 50.3% | 54.2% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Slice & Dice | 2 | 2.4% | 14 | 53.6% | 66.6% | 50.1% | 56.8% | 1249 | — |
| 11 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 40.2% | 49.7% | 44.4% | 1340 | — |
| 12 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.9% | 49.2% | 51.6% | 1224 | — |
| 13 | Water Allies | 2 | 2.4% | 11 | 45.5% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 49.3% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.4% | 12 | 41.7% | 39.1% | 47.2% | 46.0% | 1286 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.7% | 22 | 45.5% | 44.7% | 47.0% | 46.3% | 1234 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 51.2% | 47.0% | 49.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suzaku | 5 | 6.1% | 33 | 45.5% | 53.8% | 46.2% | 51.0% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.7% | 46.1% | 48.7% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.1% | 46.0% | 48.5% | 1045 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 2.4% | 15 | 43.3% | 40.9% | 45.2% | 44.5% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.2% | 44.4% | 44.2% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 40.4% | 44.3% | 48.3% | 959 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 56.0% | 44.2% | 49.5% | 1245 | — |
| 24 | Seiryuu | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 42.5% | 42.7% | 45.1% | 971 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Water Genbu | 6 | 7.3% | 41 | 39.0% | 39.5% | 42.5% | 42.8% | 1316 | — |
| 26 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 1.2% | 8 | 37.5% | 41.1% | 41.9% | 42.4% | 1259 | — |
| 27 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 43.7% | 41.5% | 46.2% | 1285 | — |
| 28 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 0.0% | 18.8% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 14.3% | 30.9% | 39.4% | 42.8% | 1056 | ↓ low |