← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Fire AggroTier 1
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.5% | +2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.2% | +10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 39.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.9% | +10.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 68.1% | +10.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 2 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 2 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |