← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Water Crux MageTier 2
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
decks
1
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1561
· median 1561
· range 1561–1561
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1177
Q3 1418
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
