← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Fire ExiaTier 2
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
decks
4
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
8-13-4
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1112
· median 1133
· range 1008–1174
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1177
Q3 1418
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.1% | -10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.4% | +9.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.3% | +26.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.5% | +10.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
