← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 52.5% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.8% | -10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.6% | -9.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gray Wolf | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Energetic Beastbonder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clash of Fates | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Direwolf | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Melodious Flute | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamelash Beastmaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primal Whip | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glow Forth | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |