← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
decks
15
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
82
42-35-5
overall winrate
54.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1238
· range 1124–1678
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1177
Q3 1418
1736
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 10 | 10-0-0 | 100.0% | 85.7% | 81.5% | +14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 47.5% | -1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.1% | +7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 29.5% | -10.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.6% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fractal of Refreshment, Chill to the Bone.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Censer of Restful Peace
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Portentous Tanggu
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.75 | 0 | 6 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Art of War | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |