← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
decks
6
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
10-23-3
overall winrate
31.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.5%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
40.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1259
· median 1256
· range 1088–1418
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1177
Q3 1418
1736
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 10 | 0-10-0 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 18.5% | -14.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.5% | -2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.9% | +20.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
