Fire AggroTier 2
at NA Nationals 2025
decks
24
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
151
70-75-6
overall winrate
48.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1382
· median 1381
· range 1205–1587
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1311
Q3 1469
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 55 | 25-25-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 41.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 46.9% | -1.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 40.6% | -4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 41.4% | -3.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.8% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.8% | +21.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 24 from this event
The 24 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 15 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Drawn Blade, Flame-Rune Swordsman, Hasty Messenger. Losers more often ran: Heated Vengeance, Safeguard Amulet, Impact Hammer.
Drawn Blade
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Sword Saint of Everflame
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Impact Hammer
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 90 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 70 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawn Blade | +0.47 | 8 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.33 | 2 | 7 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.33 | 8 | 3 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 2 | 7 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 4 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.27 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.27 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.27 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 3 | 6 | 5 | |
| Demolition | +0.20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.13 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 9 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 12 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 14 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.07 | 5 | 4 | 6 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rocket Jump | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Explosive Rune | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 |