← NA Nationals 2025

Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at NA Nationals 2025

decks
8 (3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
64 31-28-5
overall winrate
52.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6% avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
54.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1383 · median 1387 · range 1131–1526 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1311 Q3 1469 1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 26.2% 17 13-2-2 82.4% 76.2% 83.4% +13.2
Fire Aggro 11.4% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 59.2% +4.9
Water Genbu 10.0% 6 2-4-0 33.3% 40.0% 41.3% -4.7
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 29.2% -15.5
Wind Luxem Zander 5.2% 7 0-7-0 0.0% 18.2% 17.9% -16.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 58.9% +5.1
Wind Astra Cleric 4.8% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 70.3% +13.0
Wind Allies 4.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.5% +2.4
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.9% -11.3
Fire Suzaku 2.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.1% +14.5
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.4% +22.4
Water Allies 1.9% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.1% -7.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.0% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.5% 0
Fire Crux Mage 0.5% 0
Fire Exia Jin 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.7% +26.7
Fire Kongming 0.5% 0
Seiryuu 0.5% 0
Water Kongming 0.5% 0
Water Neos 0.5% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.9% -9.8
Water Seiryuu 0.5% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.5% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.5% 0
Wind Arcane 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.1% -19.0
Wind Byakko 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.5% +18.4
Wind Crux Mage 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.7% -16.5
Wind Exia 0.5% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.0% +25.5
Wind Overlord 0.5% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.5% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.5% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.1
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/25810/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine