Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at NA Nationals 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 17 | 13-2-2 | 82.4% | 76.2% | 83.4% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.2% | +4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | -15.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 7 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 17.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.9% | +5.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 70.3% | +13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.4% | +22.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | +26.7 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.0% | +25.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |