Water AlliesTier 3
at NA Nationals 2025
decks
4
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
15-17-4
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1370
· median 1402
· range 1126–1549
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1311
Q3 1469
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.1% | -7.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +5.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.1% | -20.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
