Fire SuzakuTier 2
at NA Nationals 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 52.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.4% | -26.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.0% | +17.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |