Fire Umbra RangerTier 3
at NA Nationals 2025
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-11-0
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.3%
avg ELO -6.3 per match
expected value
39.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1248
· median 1248
· range 1204–1291
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1311
Q3 1469
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 27.6% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.2% | -21.9 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
