Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at NA Nationals 2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 16 | 3-11-2 | 25.0% | 30.0% | 33.0% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 59.4% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 42.0% | -3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 62.0% | +5.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.1% | -10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 85.5% | +20.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.1% | -5.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 70.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 76.2% | +25.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |