Water Crux MageTier 3
at NA Nationals 2025
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
7-10-2
overall winrate
42.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1387
· median 1387
· range 1212–1561
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1311
Q3 1469
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 42.5% | -3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.8% | -25.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
