Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at NA Nationals 2025
decks
13
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
95
44-37-14
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1415
· median 1374
· range 1268–1590
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1311
Q3 1469
1750
31% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.2% | 23 | 10-10-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 12 | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 53.1% | +1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 13 | 4-5-4 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 48.8% | -0.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 60.7% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 38.0% | -5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.8% | +15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.8% | +19.0 |
| Water Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.1% | -30.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Slimeshield, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Verdigris Decree. Losers more often ran: Aesan Protector, Grand Crusader's Ring, Morgan, Soul Guide.
Slimeshield
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Verdigris Decree
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Mastermind Scheme
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fairy Whispers
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veiling Breeze | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diablerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |