EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Collinsville Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 7 | 4.6% | 48 | 66.7% | 66.0% | 60.6% | 60.5% | 1367 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 5 | 3.3% | 38 | 57.9% | 54.4% | 56.1% | 53.5% | 1390 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 9 | 5.9% | 59 | 60.2% | 57.7% | 55.7% | 55.6% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 2.6% | 28 | 62.5% | 64.2% | 54.9% | 56.6% | 1334 | — |
| 5 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 0.7% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.0% | 54.7% | 56.2% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 0.7% | 9 | 77.8% | 66.6% | 54.6% | 54.9% | 1349 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 11 | 7.2% | 63 | 55.6% | 50.6% | 54.0% | 51.2% | 1353 | — |
| 8 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 53.1% | 54.3% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 52.8% | 51.2% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 2.0% | 23 | 54.3% | 46.2% | 52.6% | 49.0% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 55.1% | 52.0% | 54.9% | 1291 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Genbu | 11 | 7.2% | 69 | 55.8% | 56.4% | 51.0% | 51.6% | 1385 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 26 | 17.0% | 133 | 51.9% | 51.6% | 50.4% | 50.6% | 1336 | — |
| 14 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 50.2% | 51.8% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 1.3% | 13 | 42.3% | 45.4% | 50.1% | 50.1% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 5 | 3.3% | 35 | 44.3% | 46.4% | 48.1% | 48.3% | 1331 | — |
| 17 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 4.6% | 41 | 47.6% | 48.9% | 48.0% | 49.3% | 1331 | — |
| 18 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 37.5% | 49.5% | 47.5% | 49.6% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Wind Luxem Zander | 7 | 4.6% | 44 | 43.2% | 41.4% | 46.6% | 46.4% | 1402 | — |
| 20 | Wind Allies | 6 | 3.9% | 39 | 41.0% | 45.2% | 46.6% | 48.0% | 1305 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Fractal | 24 | 15.7% | 123 | 48.4% | 48.1% | 46.5% | 46.7% | 1349 | — |
| 22 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 1.3% | 15 | 56.7% | 50.6% | 46.4% | 46.3% | 1402 | — |
| 23 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 0.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 31.6% | 45.6% | 44.7% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 24 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.1% | 45.4% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.4% | 44.8% | 43.3% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Exia | 2 | 1.3% | 11 | 27.3% | 37.6% | 43.1% | 43.6% | 1269 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 30.1% | 42.6% | 41.2% | 1309 | — |
| 28 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 2.0% | 18 | 41.7% | 41.5% | 41.9% | 41.8% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.4% | 41.1% | 43.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.5% | 40.6% | 42.0% | 1311 | — |
| 31 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 2.0% | 20 | 42.5% | 50.6% | 40.4% | 43.5% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.7% | 7 | 28.6% | 39.3% | 40.1% | 42.5% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 40.0% | 38.4% | 1401 | — |
| 34 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 0.7% | 9 | 22.2% | 33.9% | 39.9% | 41.6% | 1343 | — |
| 35 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.7% | 8 | 37.5% | 40.0% | 39.3% | 39.8% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 36 | Wind Exia | 2 | 1.3% | 6 | 8.3% | 37.3% | 37.0% | 42.4% | 1236 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.2% | 35.4% | 35.2% | 1402 | — |