← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire AggroTier 1
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 65.7% | +8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.7% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.6% | -4.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.3% | +18.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |