← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire SuitedTier 2
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.3% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.2% | -11.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |