← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
3
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
8-10-4
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1280
· range 1143–1318
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1160
Q3 1345
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
