← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
5
(7.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
18-15-1
overall winrate
54.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1317
· range 1147–1435
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1160
Q3 1345
1550
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 34.3% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.7% | +9.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
