← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.3% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |