← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water FractalTier 2
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
3
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
9-10-1
overall winrate
47.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1326
· median 1315
· range 1228–1436
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1160
Q3 1345
1550
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
