← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water AlliesTier 2
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
2
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1166–1357
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1160
Q3 1345
1550
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
