Fire Crux LorraineTier 3
at Scry Games DTR Regional
decks
2
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-7-1
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.5%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1365
· range 1331–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1149
Q3 1355
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 17.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
