Fire ExiaTier 3
at Scry Games DTR Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 17.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Liao, Bloodmonger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fortified Mana Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |