Water Astra ArisannaTier 3
at Scry Games DTR Regional
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-4-2
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.8%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
41.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1129
· median 1129
· range 1129–1129
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1149
Q3 1355
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 17.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 14.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
