Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Scry Games DTR Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 17.1% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 29.2% | -9.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 8 | 0-7-1 | 6.2% | 20.8% | 23.2% | -12.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.8% | +9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.0% | -17.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.5% | -4.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |