Water FractalTier 2
at Scry Games DTR Regional
decks
4
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
5-15-1
overall winrate
26.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
37.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1168
· range 1076–1241
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1149
Q3 1355
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 17.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.2% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
