Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 19 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• irwin85 85 cards · placed #2
• Otoro 83 cards · placed #3
• ProAnnn 83 cards · placed #6
• snapdensing 81 cards · placed #7
• TrueSightFugative 83 cards · placed #8
• L5fiber 83 cards · placed #9
• CeresFauna 85 cards · placed #25
• Jidan 77 cards · placed #28
• Jebongskiman 85 cards · placed #32
• LeSserafim 83 cards · placed #33
• motokisada 83 cards · placed #38
• MobyDick 87 cards · placed #48
• Corazon 83 cards · placed #54
• Chunkie 87 cards · placed #57
• ahuinan 83 cards · placed #60
• Polarcub 83 cards · placed #72
• Donglefutz 81 cards · placed #73
• snackz 85 cards · placed #81
• PlayForFun 84 cards · placed #107

In 15 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Rending Flames, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Evercurrent Raider, Hasty Messenger.

↑ Played more by winners

Fast Cure

Winning decks ran 2.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 8, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 5.

Rending Flames

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 8.

Turbo Charge

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 9.

Sword of Shadows

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 8.

Crystallized Destiny

Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 4.

↓ Played more by losers

Stalwart Shieldmate

Losing decks ran 2.9 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 9, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 3.

Evercurrent Raider

Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.3.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 7.

Hasty Messenger

Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 5.

Crux Sight

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 6.

Reduce to Ash

Losing decks ran 3.1 copies on average, winning decks 2.3.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 3.

Ghosts of Pendragon

Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.1.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 7.