EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals by HASUYA.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 68.8% | 66.9% | 55.5% | 57.2% | 1257 | — |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 7 | 11.1% | 34 | 63.2% | 63.3% | 55.0% | 57.6% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 9 | 14.3% | 46 | 63.0% | 50.5% | 53.4% | 47.5% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 11.1% | 37 | 59.5% | 59.3% | 53.2% | 53.3% | 1337 | — |
| 5 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 3.2% | 12 | 62.5% | 49.4% | 52.0% | 48.2% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 6.3% | 21 | 47.6% | 48.8% | 51.0% | 50.9% | 1294 | — |
| 7 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.3% | 50.3% | 47.6% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.2% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 49.2% | 50.1% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 49.1% | 51.2% | 1263 | — |
| 11 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 35.6% | 47.4% | 47.0% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 47.0% | 48.7% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 46.9% | 48.6% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Genbu | 5 | 7.9% | 27 | 48.1% | 50.6% | 46.6% | 49.1% | 1359 | — |
| 15 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 45.9% | 45.8% | 1303 | — |
| 16 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 6.3% | 24 | 43.8% | 42.3% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 25.0% | 28.1% | 44.7% | 42.3% | 1309 | — |
| 18 | Water Fractal | 5 | 7.9% | 32 | 45.3% | 48.1% | 44.7% | 46.6% | 1325 | — |
| 19 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 4.8% | 17 | 38.2% | 51.8% | 44.6% | 49.1% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 28.6% | 49.4% | 44.0% | 48.1% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.5% | 42.1% | 46.6% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 38.3% | 41.4% | 40.6% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 23 | Slimes | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.5% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 45.1% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 25.0% | 37.6% | 38.4% | 41.1% | 1303 | — |