← GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Allies
60.4%
2.3% share · 10 matches
1st
Fire Luxem Assassin
60.6%
13.6% share · 35 matches
3rd
Wind Wakeup Combo
60.4%
2.3% share · 10 matches
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Luxem Assassin 6 13.6% 35 68.6% 60.5% 60.6% 56.6% 1395 —
2 Wind Allies 1 2.3% 10 80.0% 80.9% 60.4% 66.6% 1380 —
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 2.3% 10 80.0% 80.9% 60.4% 66.6% 1380 —
4 Fire Slimes 1 2.3% 9 66.7% 54.3% 56.5% 53.4% 1492 ↑ top
5 Fire Exia 2 4.5% 14 50.0% 34.9% 55.9% 48.6% 1559 ↑ top
6 Water Allies 1 2.3% 10 55.0% 51.2% 55.2% 54.2% 1384 —
7 Fire Crux Mage 5 11.4% 27 55.6% 53.0% 53.7% 51.7% 1410 ↑ top
8 Wind Shadowstrike 6 13.6% 36 54.2% 54.7% 53.0% 53.3% 1331 —
9 Fire Aetherwing 1 2.3% 4 50.0% 49.2% 51.0% 50.2% 1376 —
10 Fire Rile 24 54.5% 95 51.1% 49.9% 48.4% 49.1% 1378 —
11 Water Aetherwing 2 4.5% 14 35.7% 45.0% 44.4% 48.9% 1264 ↓ low
12 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 2.3% 4 25.0% 41.5% 41.8% 44.3% 1223 ↓ low
13 Fire Suited 1 2.3% 2 50.0% 49.4% 40.8% 42.5% 1213 ↓ low
14 Fire Suzaku 3 6.8% 17 41.2% 47.0% 40.5% 44.2% 1338 —
15 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 4.5% 3 0.0% 37.4% 40.0% 44.9% 1245 ↓ low
16 Wind Astra Cleric 2 4.5% 9 22.2% 26.7% 40.0% 37.5% 1500 ↑ top
17 Wind Razorgale 1 2.3% 6 16.7% 27.3% 38.3% 36.1% 1460 ↑ top
18 Water Fractal 1 2.3% 10 30.0% 48.1% 36.3% 45.2% 1346 —
19 Fire Aggro 1 2.3% 9 16.7% 30.0% 35.0% 37.0% 1182 ↓ low
20 Water Astra Ranger 1 2.3% 6 0.0% 28.6% 30.9% 36.6% 1113 ↓ low